Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3964 · DTW → MBS
departs 4:36 PM ET · arrives 5:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MBS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
MBS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.