Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3978 · MSP → SDF
departs 9:02 AM CT · arrives 11:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.