Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3996 · IAD → MSP
departs 7:18 AM ET · arrives 9:02 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.