Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4759 · DEN → FSD
departs 9:55 AM MT · arrives 12:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
9am departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.