Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4759 · DEN → FSD
departs 9:55 AM MT · arrives 12:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 20%
Mon 10/19 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at FSD that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.