Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4771 · FWA → ORD
departs 9:12 AM ET · arrives 9:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at FWA that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
FWA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.18 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.