Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4782 · XNA → IAH
departs 11:57 AM CT · arrives 1:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 26%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.88 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.