Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4939
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4939 · MAF → PHX
departs 9:20 AM CT · arrives 9:23 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MAF that day
↑
MAF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
9am departures from MAF are usually not late
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.