Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5495 · SAF → DEN
departs 7:05 AM MT · arrives 8:38 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SAF that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.