Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5495 · SAF → DEN
departs 7:05 AM MT · arrives 8:38 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SAF that day
Weather at each end
SAF (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.