Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5531 · OKC → IAH
departs 1:43 PM CT · arrives 3:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.81 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.