Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5814
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5814 · IAH → ASE
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 28%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ASE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ASE?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ASE that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
ASE is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ASE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.