Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5851 · ASE → LAX
departs 8:18 AM MT · arrives 9:39 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
16%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ASE that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
ASE (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.62 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.