Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5851 · ASE → LAX
departs 8:18 AM MT · arrives 9:41 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
18%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
18%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ASE that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ASE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.18 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.