Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PD 513 · YYZ → FLL
departs 9:18 AM EDT · arrives 1:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YYZ is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.