Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PD 513 · YYZ → FLL
departs 9:29 AM EDT · arrives 12:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 15%
Mon 10/19 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
FLL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at YYZ that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.