Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 6012 · ILM → PHL
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ILM that day
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.