Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 16
PT 6012 · ILM → PHL
departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 19%
Mon 10/19 20%
Tue 10/20 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.