Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 6033 · MHT → PHL
departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 9:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at MHT that day
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.09 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.