Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1162 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1162 · BQN → EWR

departs 12:15 AM AT · arrives 4:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, thunderstorms forecast at BQN that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ BQN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BQN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1162 · BQN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?