Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1498 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1498 · EWR → MIA

departs 3:33 PM ET · arrives 6:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1498 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?