Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1818 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1818 · IAH → MSP

departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 5:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1818 · IAH → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?