Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1833 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1833 · EWR → CLE

departs 9:11 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at CLE that day

↑ 9am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1833 · EWR → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?