Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1833 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1833 · EWR → CLE

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,567 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1833 · EWR → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?