Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1904 · ORD → DCA

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 1:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1904 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?