Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2128 · DEN → ELP

departs 11:20 AM MT · arrives 1:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ ELP is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.733333 mi Precip0.19 in

ELP (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2128 · DEN → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?