Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2128 · DEN → ELP

departs 11:41 AM MT · arrives 1:39 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 42 kt forecast at ELP that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.31 in

ELP (destination) Gusts42 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2128 · DEN → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?