Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2774 · DCA → ORD

departs 10:23 AM ET · arrives 11:27 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2774 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?