Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2853 · SAT → DEN

departs 8:53 AM CT · arrives 10:11 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 8am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2853 · SAT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?