Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2853 · SAT → DEN

departs 8:53 AM CT · arrives 10:11 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ 8am departures from SAT are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2853 · SAT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?