Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 467 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 467 · ORD → MSP

departs 12:30 PM CT · arrives 1:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

MSP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 467 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?