Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1228 · CMH → DCA
departs 1:08 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at CMH that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.