Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1249 · DCA → CMH
departs 11:41 AM ET · arrives 1:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.