Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1505 · DCA → MDW
departs 1:02 PM ET · arrives 2:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.