Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1522 · DCA → STL
departs 3:07 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.