Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1615 · DEN → IND
departs 8:44 AM MT · arrives 1:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 6%
Fri 10/16 4%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.