Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1615 · DEN → IND
departs 5:52 AM MT · arrives 10:22 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 4%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IND that day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.