Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2701
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2701 · DCA → STL
departs 12:21 PM ET · arrives 1:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
12pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2.16667 mi Precip 0.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.