Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2869 · MDW → DCA
departs 5:41 AM CT · arrives 8:38 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 2%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 5%
Sat 10/17 2%
Sun 10/18 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MDW are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.