Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2897
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2897 · OKC → DCA
departs 10:46 AM CT · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.83 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.