Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 3570 · OMA → LAS
departs 7:06 AM CT · arrives 7:57 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 5%
Fri 10/16 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from OMA are usually not late
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.