Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4059
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4059 · STL → DCA
departs 3:56 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.59 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.