Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4233
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4233 · BOS → MDW
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Tue 10/13 46%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 44%
Fri 10/16 47%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.