Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4406 · MDW → MSP
departs 10:11 AM CT · arrives 11:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from MDW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.39 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.