Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 447
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 447 · MDW → MSP
departs 7:49 AM CT · arrives 9:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at MDW that day
↑
MDW is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.