Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

WN 469 · MSP → STL

departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 469 · MSP → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?