Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4916 · MIA → STL
departs 4:31 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.