Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 807 · BOS → MDW
departs 1:04 PM ET · arrives 2:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 26%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.