Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
Y4 1783 · PBC → LAX
departs 11:16 AM CST · arrives 2:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/14
Fri 10/16 14%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PBC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBC
Weather at each end
PBC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.