Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
Y4 1783 · PBC → LAX
departs 11:18 AM CST · arrives 2:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12
Wed 10/14 14%
Fri 10/16 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±9 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PBC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBC
↓
11am departures from PBC are usually not late
Weather at each end
PBC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.